Analysts have significantly raised their forecasts for average prices of platinum and palladium in 2026, driven by tight mine supply, tariff uncertainty and shifting investor demand, developments that hold particular relevance for Africa’s PGM-producing nations.
Strong performance in 2025
So far in 2025, spot prices for platinum are up roughly 76 % year-to-date, and palladium has risen about 56 %. Reuters
This surge makes 2025 one of the strongest years in recent memory for both metals.
Revised forecasts for 2026
In a recent poll of around 30 analysts and traders:
- Platinum is forecast to average about US$ 1,550 per troy ounce in 2026, up from a prior prediction of roughly US$ 1,272 and an expected average of US$ 1,249.50 for 2025.
- Palladium is now expected to average around US$ 1,262.50 per troy ounce in 2026, up from prior estimates of about US$ 1,100 and an expected 2025 average of US$ 1,106.
Key drivers
Several factors explain the bullish outlook:
- Supply constraints: For platinum, especially, analysts cite deeply undersupplied mine output, which is expected to persist into 2026.
- Tariff uncertainty: In the U.S., potential new tariffs on imports of critical minerals are weighing on sentiment and adding a layer of policy risk for these metals.
- Investment shifts: Broader demand from gold’s rally and outflows from U.S. equities have offered spill-over support to platinum-group metals.
- Palladium’s unique pressures: Although palladium’s demand is under long-term pressure from the shift to electric vehicles (EVs), the metal still faces near-term uncertainty—particularly due to calls for U.S. tariffs on imports from major producer Russia.
Why this matters for Africa
Africa hosts major producers of platinum-group metals (PGMs), notably in countries such as South Africa and Zimbabwe. Against the backdrop of these rising price forecasts:
- Mining companies may benefit from stronger margins if their cost structures remain stable and output remains steady.
- Exploration and development of PGM resources could become more attractive, especially where operations are cost-competitive and relatively resilient to global supply shocks.
- Governments in PGM-producing nations may see enhanced fiscal revenues from royalties or taxes, which could support reinvestment in the mining sector or infrastructure.
- Conversely, companies must remain vigilant to policy risks, tariffs, export restrictions or domestic supply disruptions could alter the supply-demand balance.
Outlook
Given the tight supply backdrop and policy uncertainties, analysts expect that prices for platinum and palladium could test higher levels in 2026. As one analyst put it: “We continue to expect platinum prices to test higher highs and remain deeply undersupplied in 2026.”
For palladium, the structural question remains whether the transition to EVs will accelerate faster than demand for traditional vehicle uses of the metal declines. The “Damoclean sword” hanging over the market, as one analyst described it, is the possibility of the opposite outcome still happening.
Implications for stakeholders
- Mining companies: Should review operational and capital plans in light of potentially higher price decks. Projects previously marginal may become viable.
- Investors: May look for exposure to PGM producers with cost discipline and strong governance, especially in Africa.
- Governments and policy makers: Should consider how rising PGM prices affect mining sector strategy, including royalties, local beneficiation, and downstream opportunities.
- Supply chain actors: From smelting to automotive parts, stakeholders will need to monitor how PGM price shifts influence cost structures and strategic sourcing.
In summary, the elevated 2026 forecasts for platinum and palladium present both opportunities and implications for the African mining and engineering sector. With global supply tighter and policy risks elevated, companies and governments in PGM-producing regions should position themselves proactively to leverage the upside while managing risk.
